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EYE ON INDIA NOVEMBER 20, 2026 | The Indian Eye 6

Uttar Pradesh 2027:

Can caste and religious arithmetic

decide the battle for power?

The battle will be about more than Hindu-Muslim polarisation:
caste consolidation, sub-caste loyalties, backward-class representation and the division of opposition
votes could determine who governs India’s most politically significant state.

OUR BUREAU
Lucknow / New Delhi
he political contest for Uttar Pradesh in 2027
is already taking shape, even though the elec-
Ttion is still months away. The BJP wants to re-
tain the state after two consecutive terms, the Sama-
jwadi Party (SP) hopes to convert its social coalition
into a winning electoral alliance, and a new political
formation is attempting to bring Dalits and Muslims
under a common banner.
The central question is whether the BJP’s com-
bination of Hindutva, welfare politics and non-Ya-
dav OBC support can withstand a more consolidat-
ed opposition built around caste representation and
social justice.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election offers an import-
ant indication of how this contest could unfold. The
BJP’s tally in Uttar Pradesh fell from 62 seats in 2019
to 33, while the SP won 37 and Congress six. An anal-
ysis by the National University of Singapore’s Insti- All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) National President Asaduddin Owaisi addresses a joint press conference with
tute of South Asian Studies, drawing on CSDS-Lok- Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) National President and Nagina MP Chandrashekhar Azad, announcing their alliance ahead of
niti post-poll surveys, found that the INDIA alliance the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, in Lucknow on Thursday (ANI Photo)
consolidated support among Yadavs, Muslims
and sections of the Dalit and OBC communities. ported on November 12 that the Centre’s decision Akhilesh, however, sees both an opportunity
The numbers are revealing. In the 2024 election, to reconsider the guidelines following upper-caste and a threat. Welcoming the formation, he claimed
92 per cent of Muslim voters and 82 per cent of Ya- protests had created a difficult political balancing that the new front could cost the BJP another 2-3
dav voters surveyed supported the INDIA alliance. act. Retaining them risks alienating sections of up- percentage points of its vote share. Yet the SP chief
The BJP retained a strong advantage among upper per-caste voters; withdrawing them could create re- also made it clear that his party considers the PDA
castes and non-Yadav OBCs, but lost ground among sentment among Dalits and OBCs. Political analyst the principal vehicle for political change.
several other communities. The results demonstrat- Shashikant Pandey told the publication that the BJP Religion will remain equally important. The
ed that the BJP’s Hindu consolidation strategy was was at risk of upsetting the social coalition it had BJP is likely to retain Hindutva as a central cam-
not immune to caste-based political mobilisation. carefully built over the past decade. paign theme, seeking to consolidate Hindu voters
Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA strategy is built around The new Owaisi-Azad alliance adds another across caste divisions. The opposition, meanwhile,
precisely this opportunity. By expanding beyond layer to this arithmetic. Muslims constitute approx- will have to balance Muslim representation with the
the SP’s traditional Yadav-Muslim support base, he imately 19 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s population challenge of attracting Hindu OBC and Dalit com-
hopes to bring together backward castes, Dalits and and Scheduled Castes around 21 per cent. Together, munities without allowing the BJP to turn the elec-
minorities under a common political identity. The they represent a substantial electoral constituen- tion into a communal contest.
challenge is to translate this social arithmetic into a cy. But numerical strength does not automatically The BJP has an established electoral organisa-
durable electoral coalition. translate into political power. Their voting prefer- tion and a broad social coalition. The opposition has
The BJP, meanwhile, is not sitting idle. A cab- ences, regional concentration, candidate selection the advantage of a renewed caste-based mobilisa-
inet expansion in May brought in three OBC min- and ability to build alliances with other communities tion but faces the problem of competing ambitions
isters, two Dalit representatives and a Brahmin will matter. and divided leadership.
leader, reflecting an effort to strengthen its social The Samajik Parivartan Morcha has announced The decisive question for 2027 may therefore not
coalition. The Indian Express reported that the plans to contest all 403 constituencies and invited be which party has the largest caste or religious con-
appointments were aimed at retaining non-Yadav the Congress and SP to join it. Azad has promised stituency, but which can bring the greatest number
OBC and non-Jatav Dalit support while addressing free school education, better healthcare, employ- of these constituencies together without driving an-
concerns among sections of the upper castes. ment opportunities and protection of reservation other section away. In Uttar Pradesh, political arith-
An additional complication has emerged over rights. “We will fight together like a family,” he said, metic has always mattered. This time, the ability to
the UGC’s 2026 equity regulations. The Federal re- while keeping the door open to opposition parties. manage its contradictions could matter even more.

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